Israel’s capability to strike Iran without specific military facility operations is a key question. Can the Israeli government effectively navigate the shifting regional political-security landscape that aligns with the US and other nations to craft a response limited to harsh sanctions against Iran?
Foreign reports surfaced early morning across Iran, the US, and other media, detailing attacks in Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Focus quickly turned to an Iranian military airfield in Isfahan, from which unmanned Iranian aircraft reportedly departed for an attack on Israel.
Israel found itself compelled to mount a military response to Iranian aggression between Saturday and Sunday. With diplomatic pressures from the US and others, it’s become clear that Israel, under such pressure, would seek to “send a message” without escalating to a direct and prolonged confrontation with Iran.
Analyzing foreign reports on the relatively secretive operation—where heavy drones struck an Iranian military airfield in response to an attack on an Israeli military airfield in the Negev—it appears to be a simple tit-for-tat equation. However, Israel’s focused, limited strikes against Iranian targets aim to allow room for Iranian denial and avoid triggering an escalated response.
US restraint and continued focus on the Gaza Strip further constrain Israel’s actions. Opening a new theater of war would counter Israel’s interests at this time.
Israeli concerns also stem from the intelligence community’s failure to properly assess changing Iranian aggressiveness amid a deepening alliance with Russia. The Iranians’ decision to escalate the inter-state conflict into open confrontation adds to Israeli worries.
Considering an Iranian response every time
With every tough or surprising action against Iranian interests, Israel’s security establishment must consider a direct Iranian response. And in this new equation, Israel may need to introduce a new player to deter the Ayatollah regime.
Another pressing question arises: how will Israel leverage international pressure to prevent a broad attack on Iran? Such an attack could escalate the region into a conflagration, prompting a coalition against Iran imposing harsh economic sanctions and hindering its nuclear and missile projects. Without such a coalition, Israel and Iran face a dangerous confrontation.
Israel’s message, as per foreign reports, is clear: it knows how to inflict damage on Iranian facilities without sending fighter jets on a 1500 km flight path. This sets a new equation: Iran must extend its reach to strike Israeli territory, while Israel can retaliate even without special operations.
