Hezbollah is trying to save face amid 201 days of conflict with Israel. Hezbollah joined in the Hamas attacks after October 7, essentially trying to open a limited two-front war with Israel. This has now stretched on longer than Hezbollah likely anticipated. The Iranian-backed terrorist group has lost hundreds of its fighters, many of whom are difficult to replace.
The group has a large arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones. However, Hezbollah is also “too big to fail” in the Iranian proxy context. Iran cannot afford to bring it into the conflict, lest it be destroyed. On the other hand, Iran wants to keep it like a Sword of Damocles, hanging forever over Israel, threatening but not falling on Israel. This presents a dilemma. Unleash Hezbollah, and it will have shot its bolt. But if it is kept there, then Iran is doomed to forever wait and play a limited war game. This is likely in Iran’s interest. It wants to change the equation with Israel. It wants to attack Israel forever with impunity from multiple fronts. It wants to slowly weaken Israel.
Hezbollah has other interests. It continues to escalate attacks on Israel. On April 23, it targeted areas along the coast near Acre with drones, setting off alarms that forced around a quarter million Israelis to seek shelter. On April 24 it has also claimed numerous attacks on Israel. Israel has also responded with numerous attacks.
The rules of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict
Hezbollah, Iran, and the region see the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel as functioning along certain guidelines or “rules.” Al-Ain media in the Gulf wondered whether the exchange of fire on April 24 could possibly be lifting the curtain on a change in this equation. “Have the rules of engagement collapsed,” the Gulf-based online magazine wondered.
“Hezbollah has intensified its targeting of military sites since last week,” the report notes. “Wednesday’s strikes came the day after an Israeli bombing targeted towns in southern Lebanon, resulting in the killing of two civilians from one family,” the report claims. Israel said it struck a key Hezbollah commander, who Al-Ain referred to as “Hezbollah missile unit engineer Hussein Azqul.” Two other members of the Hezbollah Radwan force have also been killed in the last several days. This brings the total Hezbollah death toll to at least 252. Last week, Hezbollah also wounded 14 Israeli soldiers and several civilians in an attack on Arab al-Aramshe on the border.
The question on Wednesday, April 24, regarding the escalation is whether the rules of engagement have indeed changed. Is the conflict potentially entering a new phase. Iran will want to keep the Hezbollah powder reasonably dry up until there is an Israeli operation in Rafah.
This is because Iran always wants to have the option to open a two-front war against Israel. Hezbollah is now designed as a deterrent against Israel’s actions. Iran uses Hezbollah this way. However, a deterrent force only works if it remains a force. It doesn’t work if it is weakened. Hezbollah must remain strong in its position in order for it to fulfill the role Iran wants it to fulfill. Hezbollah faces other challenges in this respect. It has to balance its daily attacks on Israel with its interests in Lebanon.
Many Lebanese do not like Hezbollah. Unlike Hamas’s control of Gaza, which was complete and total and was empowered by backing from Western allies in Doha and Ankara, Hezbollah does not have key Western allies in its corner. Hezbollah is thus weaker than Hamas in some respects. Its leaders don’t reside in Doha, and fly to Turkey and Iran so easily, for instance. Hezbollah has local Shi’ite constituents and must navigate Lebanon’s complex sectarian political landscape. Hamas, by contrast, controls Gaza at the street level and has deep tentacles within international organizations that work in Gaza. Hezbollah has deep tentacles in Lebanon, but it has to balance them against other factors.
Hezbollah will need to weigh this as it weighs escalation against Israel. Israel has said in the past that Hezbollah should pay attention to Gaza as a message to Beirut and has said that Israel is prepared in the north. Hezbollah has been watching Gaza and watching it drag on. This may empower it. However, it has also seen some of its key commanders eliminated over six months.